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| Título: |
VALIDATION OF THE PROJECT VALUATION CRITERION USING THE REAL OPTIONS THEORY: BRAZILIAN OIL FIELDS E&P, CONSIDERING PRICES AS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION |
| Instituição: |
PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO - PUC-RIO |
| Autor(es): |
VIKTOR NIGRI MOSZKOWICZ
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| Colaborador(es): |
JOSE PAULO TEIXEIRA - Orientador
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| Catalogação: |
04/06/2003 |
| Tipo: |
THESIS
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Idioma(s): |
PORTUGUESE - BRAZIL
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| Referência [pt]: |
http://www.maxwell.lambda.ele.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=3592@1 |
| Referência [en]: |
http://www.maxwell.lambda.ele.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=3592@2 |
| Resumo: |
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Financial researchers have discussed a lot about the
theoretical advantages of including the managerial
flexibility and the financial options analogy in projects
valuation criteria. Plenty of authors criticize the
currently used investment analysis methods, mainly
represented by the discounted cash flow, supported by the
notion that the managers should use techniques that better
reflect the available flexibility to take their decisions.
In this sense, the present dissertation has the objective
of validating the suggested advantages of using the Real
Options theory through a back-testing focused on oil fields
with Brazilian oil industry representative characteristics.
Those tests will be carried out for the 1970-1990 period,
considering the economic uncertainty and excluding the
technical uncertainties. The investment decisions model
developed in Excel and VBA (Visual Basic for Applications)
contemplates the options of waiting till two years and of
choosing among three exploitation intensities. The Geometric
Brownian Motion was assumed as the stochastic process to
represent the real oil prices time evolution, and its
volatility was varied to generate a sensibility analysis.
Finally it is worthy to state that the results shall not be
accepted as definitive, and just as a foundation to future
studies on the empirical research line of verifying and
validating the theoretical advantages of the Real Options
with regard to others currently used criteria.
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